Eretz Yisrael Time

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Monday, June 26, 2006
Yesterday’s attack weren't the actions of an impromptu band of terrorists. It was a well-planned and premeditated attack with support from the highest PA government sources. The timing of the operation may not have been convenient for some in the Hamas government right at this moment, and that probably indicates an internal rift on high, but everyone (and I mean everyone) was involved in planning this operation.

But has anyone thought for a second what the goal of the operation was?

“To kill IDF soldiers”, you are probably saying to yourself. But no it wasn’t that, that was just a perk. It was only and solely to kidnap as many IDF soldiers as they could.

To trade them for prisoners?

Highly unlikely.

They could have easily kidnapped soldiers in the West Bank without the elaborate tunnels, and missiles, and so on. The goal here is far different.

The Palestinian Authority Terrorists wants Israel to invade Gaza, more specifically; they want Israel to mass on the ‘border’ and then invade Gaza.

They know the limitations our Leftwing government will place on the IDF. They know what the IDF will be forbidden to do. They plan to take advantage of that.

To begin with, Gilad Shalit the soldier, is no longer in easy reach of the IDF. I would even doubt at this point if he is even in Gaza anymore. Spiriting him far away was clearly part of the plan long before. You can see Iran’s finger in this operation.

But why would the PA want Israel to invade?

Because they know that the IDF will gather troops outside the fence and only then start sending them in.

Cannon Fodder.

You see, Olmert and Peretz have no plans to properly launch a ground offensive. It would go against their ideology and “worse” cause international condemnation of Israel.

They have no plans to soften the enemy in advance of the troops going in.

They didn’t shut off the electricity and water in Gaza right away to cause confusion and disorder among the population that would have caused logistic and mobility problems for the terrorists (such as how to hide and move our soldier).

The IDF didn’t immediately react in force, a lesson you would have thought they would have learned already from the Lebanon retreat (probably because of fear of repercussions from our Leftwing government and the years of Leftwing training to be submissive in the face of the enemy). In fact, we can probably assume that the inexperienced and Leftwing government gave the IDF orders to stand-down to “avoid having the soldier harmed”.

This government will not be launching a series of precision bombs against the heads of the Hamas and Fatah to remove the leadership and command-and-control capabilities of the terrorists. They will not even order carpet bombing of the buildings in the IDF’s path that will present excellent base for the PA to attack IDF soldiers –leaving us with another Jenin.

The Israeli Leftwing government simply gave away the very narrow window of opportunity to foil the PA’s plan to spirit away the soldier when it did not react right away, just like when Hizbollah kidnapped our soldiers after Barak ran away from Lebanon.

As much as they don’t want to, and are still trying to avoid it, instead Olmert and Peretz will eventually have to have the IDF mass on the border, and go in that way – the stupid way.
So ignoring for a second the PA’s more accurate weapons (which they have) and the fighting in the alleyways like in Jenin - a few unwell-placed Kassams in the middle of the budding IDF forward offensive base will simply wreak havoc on the IDF.

You see, unfortunately I think that this is what the PA really has planned.

IDF operations have begun predictable.

Coerce the government with the right amount of pressure to act, and burden them with the right amount of international (and leftwing political) pressure to limit what actions you can take, and unless you consciously choose to be more aggressive and creative you will find yourself in a box, which is what is probably going on down in the Pit.

So our troops will eventually be gathering on the border in large clusters (exactly like before the Expulsion) making them easy targets for anything the PA wants to launch at them (with whatever payloads they want inside) - and they will.

The alternative is that Olmert and Peretz are actually psychologically frozen and will simply do nothing militarily.

This isn’t about releasing Hamas prisoners, and this is one analysis that I hope I am wrong about.


Anonymous said...

During the Sunday night cabinet meeting Shimon Peres urged the IDF to respond with restraint to the attack.

Can't we trade Peres Smeres for our chayal? We can even throw in the "Peres Peace Center".

I simply had enough of this dude.


Anonymous said...

Nightowl americans are ignorant of the present situation unless they are reading you or Captain's Quarters blog. Nothing on the cable news networks as all they do on Sunday night is rerun canned programs. I'm praying for all y'all. Praying you are wrong too but the worm Olmert will do exactly the wrong thing we can be sure.

Fern @ Life on the Balcony said...

Scott--There are quite a few English language news sites with info about the situation and I've seen/heard it covered a couple of times on the radio and TV. It's also being covered at The Corner, Little Green Footballs, and PowerLine. Just to name a few. Give Americans some credit.

Oleh Yahshan said...

I think you are giving the Pals. to much credit.
I think that while your analysis on this side of the line (I.E. Smolmert, Shmassam and Mr. Defence), I think the reason for the attack is much simpler.

Yes I think that They (Hamas) want Israel to attack. Why?? because it's the best way to get everyone in the PA, behind them. Abu Maazen won't talk about his silly (and very scary to them) Prisoners letter, and they will gain control on the streets as those fighting off the Evil Zionists once again.

Politics has done really bad things to Hamas, They have to talk on TV and make all sorts of Statements, Deal with critisizm, and all sorts of other things.. They want to go back to Plain Old Killing of Jews.. Like the good old days..

In the end, I hope you are wrong about our "great" Govt. and that there is just a drop of sense that we have to go in there, and end this once and for all. But we will live(?) and See...

Hoping for better times!

JoeSettler said...

OY: I might be giving the Palistinianss too much credit, but certainly not the Iranians who are sticking their fingers into the region and Hizbollah who the Pals are trying to imitate.

It certainly does get their minds off their internecine problems, on the other hand there is also an internal Hamas battle for control/direction going on which this is a part of.

But this is one time I hope I am wrong.

Meanwhile Olmert threatened to consider military actions today at the Sochnut Yehudi Dinner, but promised to pursue peace and negotiation with those same exact people.

Fern @ Life on the Balcony said...

Well, part of your analysis has apparently come true. I just read on FOX News that the IDF is gathering along the border with Gaza.

JoeSettler said...

More details on the IDF gathering in one point can be read here.

Olmert is completely afraid to go in, he hopes that a display of force is the same as the use of force.

If the PA had any brains they would start raining Kassams down now on the position, before the IDF is actually organized to do anything. Hopefully they don't have those brains.

The question is will Olmert soften the targets by air before he sends troops in - if he doesn't then IDF soldiers will die, if he does, he will be condemned by the international community, let's see which is more important to him.

Ultimately though, what is the PA's goal at this point?

1) If they return the soldier without anything they appear weak and will lose face (and power).

2) If they don't return the body they can either
a) hope for a stalemate like Israel had with the Hizbollah until their demands are met. (Very likely with Olmert).
b) expect the IDF to enter.

If they are expecting the IDF to enter it is either
a) because they do have a plan and method to kill a lot of soldiers.
b) hoping to set off the war in the West Bank too
c) (as OY mentioned) get everyone back on track as to who the enemy is (Israel)

There is also the Scorpion option.
(Scorpion asks a frog for a tremp over the river. In the middle the scorpion stings the frog. As they are both drowning, the frog asks, "Why?" Scorpion answer, "What 'why?' It's just my nature.")

Shanah said...

American news is treif.

If your analysis is correct Joe, which I believe it very well may be, the IDF still has an advantage in being a skilled, trained fighting force as opposed to their enemies who are nothing more than a chaotic bunch of suicidal lunatics.

Granted, Olmert and Peres want "restraint" so the best I can do is pray that this will be the time of the Yhoshuas, Dovids, and Y'hudah Macabees.

Thanks for your insight; we'd be lost without it.

JoeSettler said...

Silly me. I forgot all about the Hizbollah .
According to the article they are preparing an offensive in the North.

So lets count the fronts that can open up this week:
1. Gaza
2. North
3. West Bank
4. Jerusalem (Gilo)
5. Destroying Jewish Outposts

Oh, I didn't mean to put number 5 there, but Peretz keeps mentioning it

Anonymous said...

brilliant.-and I hope you are wrong because we would get smashed.

Mad Zionist said...

Neville Olmert has innocent Jews beaten into submission by riot police because they had the nerve to gather in support of a nice Jewish couple who built a small home in Judea after getting married.

Moslems kill and hold Jews hostage and Neville Olmert bunches his troops at the Gaza border and promises that more Jewish settlers in Judea will be expelled as scheduled.

Such is the disturbing state of affairs in Hellenized Israel.

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