Eretz Yisrael Time

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Thursday, March 30, 2006
Some minor changes have resulted from counting the outstanding votes.

Except for providing Olmert with 61 nearly guaranteed disengagement votes (assuming the Gimlaim vote as he wants), as of yet I can't see it affecting anything else besides some internal perceptions (and 6 specifically happy or disappointed individuals).



  • Kadima 29 (up from 28)
  • Likud 12 (up from 11)
  • Meretz 5 (up from 4)
    ---------------------------------------
  • Shas 12 (down from 13)
  • Lieberman 11 (down from 12)
  • Raam-Tal 3 (down from 4)
For Kadima, overall this is good because Shas and Lieberman now can't ask for as much.

For a potential Labor coalition it doesn't effectively change anything, except make the idea much more interesting to Shas and Lieberman now that they are less important to Kadima. It may also make the idea more interesting to Labor as they can still get rid of any (at least one) choice of partners and still have 61.



  • Avoda 20
    ...(Prime Minister, Foreign, Finance, Industry-Trade, Labor, Education)
  • Shas 12
    ...(Interior, Justice, Construction&Housing)
  • Likud 12
    ...(Agriculture, Communications)
  • Lieberman 11
    ...(Defense, Security, Transportation)
  • Gimlaim 7
    ...(Health)
  • UTJ 6
    ...(Deputy Minister - they don't like taking full responsibility)
  • Meretz 5
    ...(Environment)
Total 73 seats.

In short, the idea is still doable and even more favorable to Avoda if Peretz really wants to be Prime Minister and not second string.

8 comments:

Fern Sidman said...

COMMENTARY ON ISRAELI ELECTION RESULTS

BY: FERN SIDMAN

The election results are in and the immediate future of Israel is in deep peril. Despite the low voter turnout, it appears that the Kadima, Labor and Meretz coalition has taken power with the lowest coalition majority in the history of the state.

At Mr. Olmert’s victory speech, his ominous policies were clearly vocalized. “The people have spoken clearly, they want Kadima,” Olmert boomed, adding that the dream of the Greater Land of Israel must be repudiated “and Jews, with much pain, must be evacuated.”

Olmert’s words were echoed by Shimon Peres of Kadima, who announced Tuesday night that the future coalition will be one that will promote the “turning inward” plan – a new euphemism for unilateral withdrawals that frames the forced evictions as moving outlying towns to the delineated settlement blocs.

And who is really celebrating tonight?? You guessed it. The Arabs. While they spew forth their vituperative towards the State of Israel and plan it’s destruction, our Jewish leaders fall all over themselves attempting to make “peace” with those who seek our destruction. The Arabs are also elated because the Arab parties received 10 seats in the next Knesset.

When did we ever believe that this would occur? Let us remember the words of Rabbi Meir Kahane, ZT”L who said that Arabs would eventually become a majority and quietly, democratically vote Israel out of existence. We have now witnessed the beginning of this phenomenon.

“The ultimate hope of the Arabs who dream of destroying the Jewish State, of realizing that vision, is the left-liberal camp inside Israel” Rabbi Meir Kahane - (Israel: Revolution or Referendum?, 1990, page 62)

It is also apparent that the government of Israel seeks to quell the right of free speech, a basic component of a democratic government. This was evidenced when MK Michael Kleiner of Herut came to Jaffa, in a last-minute effort to solicit Arab votes. Kleiner's supporters posted signs in Arabic in Jaffa, and in other Arab towns throughout Israel, urging Arabs to vote for him, in the upcoming Israeli national elections. Kleiner is promising to push for legislation of a law that would pay Arabs to leave Israel.

According to recent surveys, as many as 50 percent of the "Palestinians" would gladly leave Israel if they were given start-up funds to begin a new life elsewhere.

Local Arab leaders incited a riot, and police refused to allow Kleiner to come back to Jaffa. Kleiner also filed complaints against Tel Aviv Councilman Rifat Torik for incitement and his statements in support of the attacks against party activists, who Kleiner maintains were in life-threatening danger.

It is clear that anyone who proposes the idea of transfer of the Arab population is subject to harassment and arrest and severe prosecution. Anyone who attempts to promulgate the idea of self preservation of the Jewish people and the Jewish State is viewed as a villain, a criminal, a fomenter of unrest. Anyone who speaks the Torah truth, who speaks of the uniqueness of the Jewish people, who declares the Oneness and Omnipotence of the G-d of Israel is subject to ridicule, and worse, arrest and imprisonment.

The powers that be in the Israeli government cannot quash the truth. They cannot silence those whose belief in and adherence to the laws of Hashem and His Torah, are their first priority. We can no longer remain blind to the truth. And the truth is the Arabs are indeed on their way to becoming a majority in the State of Israel. Rather than being voted out of existence by the Arab in this ostensible democracy, we must raise our collective voices in protest of the impending destruction of Israel. We must summon up the strength and courage to do the will of Hashem. We must purge the malignant Arab population before it is too late. May Hashem be at our side.

Tiburon said...

We could lose the word "transfer", easily...No one has to be 'transfered'. There are OPTIONS but you won't hear about them in any Israeli really public forum. I've written about some of these post-election on LGF: - posts #67 through 72, if anyone is interested.

http://littlegreenfootballs.com/weblog/?entry=19826#c0067

The Professor has issued his post election article: - Can Israel Survive as a "Democracy". Wasn't up yet on the www.foundation1.org site yet (Foundation for Constitutional Democracy) but you can find it on the same LGF thread at post #97. Interesting discussion on that thread about the issues, btw.

Be well folk. Maybe there's an upside to all this. For sure gum ze l'tova, but maybe further, we'll see, finally, a concerted effort to build a Jewish National Movement OUTSIDE the Knesset...Maybe Feiglin will see his way to join, too.

Or maybe, like Eidelberg muses, it's time to say goodbye to our senescent only-democracy-in-the-middle-east.

Sabzi Aash said...

Imagine that, a sefardi prime minister!

I'm sad to see Hazit still didn't get in. (What were Marzel and Kleiner thinking, running separately? If they couldn't get along one of them should have just dropped out so as not to divide the voters. Then again, maybe it wouldn't have helped anyway....)

Looking at Likud, they're now tied with Shas for third place rather than being in fifth. Bibi comes out a little less disgraced, but I doubt that will get the other power-hungry Likudniks off his back.

lurker said...

This message is directed primarily at tiburon. In the days before the elections, he posted a great many messages on this blog insisting that Hazit was a sure thing, and that Marzel was "already past the threshold", on the flimsy basis of some document that a bunch of people were asked to sign.

As we all know now, Hazit got only 25,935 votes -- far below the threshold of 62,760. This means that even if the blocking threshold didn't exist, Marzel *still* wouldn't have gotten in -- he didn't even get enough for *one* seat. This should be a lesson to all concerned about being a bit more responsible regarding unrealistic expectations and promises.

Note that I'm *not* attacking people who voted for Hazit. Joe voted for them, but he openly recognized and acknowledged that it was a risk. There's nothing wrong with that. What I am criticizing are statements like those of tiburon, who assured everyone that it was all in the bag, and that no one needed to worry about Marzel not crossing the threshold.

On a related subject: tiburon -- you are clearly a very serious devotee of Paul Eidelberg and his ideas. You might therefore find it enlightening to see how Eidelberg responds when presented with a challenge to those ideas. Take a look at Aaron Lerner's interview with him this morning:

http://www.imra.org.il/story.php3?id=28905

Make sure you read to the end -- where Eidelberg hangs up the phone because he hasn't got an answer to Lerner's question.

Sabzi Aash said...

According to A7, one seat required 24,609 votes, so Hazit would have gotten in if there had been no threshold.

Tiburon said...

OK, Lurker.

Fair enough. I Read the (extremely short) interview. Curious how you "know" that the Professor "hangs up the phone because he can't answer". I've listened to dozens of interviews on A7 where the line goes dead. You work for the telephone company?
Why Lerner didn't phone back to continue isn't said.

Small matter, though on data so far you're presenting a VERY biased view of Eidelberg, by that comment, and far away from the issues.

Why did 62,000 voters SIGN a document and two-thirds vanish? I don't know. In the interview Eidelberg points to the full-court press against 'voting for small parties' by pretty well the full spectrum of parties tenured in the Knesset. He makes a passing reference to 'stolen votes', but not hearing his voice I can't judge whether he was making a 'ruefull joke'.

Me, election night when Barak got in? '99, I stood on the balcony of a hotel in Eilat opposite the airport and watched them loading what looked like two types of ballot boxes into an IDF transport helicopter, it was about midnight. I had binoculars with me as I was watching and enjoying the lights in the harbour. The airport and chopper was maybe 300 metres away from me, my binocs 10x50. I ASSUMED these were the already counted boxes being shipped back to Tel Aviv for records and verification. While they were loading these boxes, some blue w/State logo, and some smaller white - going back and forth from the truck to the chopper - one of the loaders stumbled while carrying about 5 boxes (out of 50-60..I didn't count), and the boxes fell, opened, and what looked exactly like a snowstorm of ballots got caught in the propwash (the chopper hadn't powered down, it was just idling) and blew out across the tarmac - so many in fact that I walked the South fence of the airport by the marina the next morning to see if I could find some against the fence, (about a mile away), as the night wind was steady and strong out into the Gulf.
The guys on the tarmac seemed to make a half-hearted attempt to gather up some of these slips of paper, looking at a few of them, but then gave up, continued loading, and eventually the helicopter flew off.

Needless to say this gave me a very nasty chill.

Now curiously enough, (I'm a very long time follower of IMRA) I wrote an email which I still have, to Aaron Lerner, and told him about this. He replied and said I was mistaken, and that these boxes I described couldn't have been the ballot boxes, or ballots, but rather perhaps just unfilled ballots or supplies - that this was not the procedure used for ballot management. (I don't remember his exact words, the mail is in my archives). Why a helicopter had to be used to ferry these irrelevant supplies from Eilat to wherever, in the middle of the night, is another question - but I know military budgets aren't too closely scrutinized in Israel. The loaders, btw, half were not in uniform. I could not, for the record, identify ANY faces.

I accepted this totally at face value from Aaron L., and felt a degree of relief, despite the (to me) disaster of Barak's win.

Why do I bring this up today? I just read Joe's post about Rechavam's experience up above. I hear stories like this ALL THE TIME. No one who lives in Israel is 'unaware' that all is not well in the Jewish State, with it's government. And while Eidelberg may have been "ruefully joking" about stolen votes, I'm not so sanguine. Were there 'scrutineers' in the Tel Aviv Kadima strongholds? Arab stongholds? (remember, Herut got 0.6% somewhere in the Triangle - where's THAT at? I mean, ONE Arab Israeli voting for Herut's 'buyout' program? And if there's ONE....)
I'm just saying....

I'm just saying that it wouldn't surprise me if votes for Marzel 'disappeared' from some of the hundreds (?) of polling stations. 40,000 votes? Seems inconceivable to me. Really. But.

Better the explanation that folk, good nationalist folk took the time to sign a form saying they'd vote Marzel, and 'changed their minds'....'reneged'.
Or that Marzel, Hazit, Yamin, ...all of them...were simply lying about these committments, to try and steer the vote... Torah Jews. Lying about such a thing.
(and I've read Israeli blogs that are close to Marzel that've said they had first-hand confirmation of the document. (Don't remember where, but maybe they're lying, too)
One thing, the 'wasted votes' didn't account for a single seat for the Left, nor would it have given a single seat (without a vote sharing arrangement or Hazit dropping out in direct favour of, say, NU/NRP) to the Right. And another thing, what's with this 'Army vote' thing, where Likud is suddenly back in the running at third, with an extra seat? Doesn't the IDF vote IN ADVANCE? Why so long to tally?

You say: - "This should be a lesson to all concerned about being a bit more responsible regarding unrealistic expectations and promises."

Well, my friend (?), I sit here and watch the punditry ramp up and the show procede in the Knesset Dance - and I can't escape how much it's all like watching a basketball game on TV. You can't even cheer to 'influence' the players, it's out of your hands again, till next election.

Vote Beasts. Hope you enjoyed your "Day of Democratic Freedoms". They come few enough.

Why Lerner chose to harp on exactly what the polls said about Kahane's chances before his third attempt, escapes me. If he knew, why didn't he just say? Was he trying to show how PE was ignorant and wrong? - that Kahane HAD polls showing him in, and therefore "Marzel/Eidelberg did wrong to the voters"?

{I should make a quick note here that I always considered Kahane (memory for blessing) way too populist and simplistic in his program. PE's programs and suggestions are subtle and do-able in todays geo-political and diplomatic context. Don't hold your breath waiting to read about them in the popular press.)

Furthermore, one of Eidelberg's platform planks is that the threshold should be RAISED IMMEDIATELY - to at least 5%, and I know in fact he'd prefer 7%. We need UNITY, not bloody "pensioner parties", for G-d's sake Save Us!!!

Why Lerner never strongly promotes the life and death need for a Jewish Constitution, radical reform of the electoral system to give direct elected and accountable MK's to the People, and a radically reformed High Court, well that escapes me too, and I find it interesting that he didn't raise these issues in the interview. (well, it was, as said, very short)


Israeli's get one day every few years to express their opinions. Those who voted Marzel voted their conscience, with no compromise. They'll sleep well nights. Most of those who didn't made a 'tactical calculation' - and basically 'accepted the whorehouse', as long it wasn't too close to the center of their town.

No one who votes nationalist is AGAINST Marzel's, Eidelberg's ideas - a clean town - it's just they can't see anyway for it to happen in the present realities.

That being the case, the 'Jewish State' is screwed. HaShem will find a way to see it reborn, after it's Fall - in the fullness of time.

This election was an unmitigated disaster, and Marzel had little to do with it - but was rather the only clear light (well, maybe along with Herut) in the whole stinkin' mess.

Enjoy the basketball game.

Tiburon said...

Here's a not-so-little addendum to the not-so-little kerfuffle addressed in the exchange between Lurker and myself. I don't know who this Lerner fellow is (though as said I've followed and appreciated his news service for half a decade now - archiving EVERYTHING), but it doesn't look like he's being 'helpful', in this instance.
This came into PE's mailing list, just now: -

"It is with great reluctance that I respond to Aaron Lerner’s specious claim that he interviewed me last Friday. Not only did he fail to inform me, in a professional manner, that his call was for the purpose of an interview, but he seemed anxious to excoriate me and/or Hazit for participating in the 2006 elections and, in his language, “burning” 25,935 votes. He repeatedly interrupted me and engaged in an extended diatribe. I hung up in disgust. Know, therefore, that his publishing any remark that he attributes to me does not have my approval."

Prof. Paul Eidelberg

"Below is what I have to say about Hazit’s participation in the 2006 election.

(this has not yet been posted to the Foundation site www.foundation1.org
but there are two other post-election articles there that are IMHO a must read - Tiburon)

In Defense of Baruch Marzel
Prof. Paul Eidelberg

Spokesmen and supporters of National Union and the National Religious Party are denouncing Baruch Marzel (and his Jewish National Alliance—Hazit) for having deprived NU-NRP of one mandate.

Before addressing this issue, let me first congratulate the 25,935 people who voted Hazit. You did not succumb to the paltry propaganda about not “wasting your vote on a small party.” Hence you are the most highly principled and intelligent citizens of Israel, and I salute you!

You were not influenced by polls and petty pollsters. What concerned you was not numbers or quantity, but names and quality; and you saw in Baruch Marzel, and in the names of Hazit’s candidates, character, courage and uncompromising conviction. That’s what you voted for, and this is why you did not vote for NU-NRP.

You would not vote for any party that joined a government whose prime minister was committed to the establishment of a Palestinian state.

You would not vote for any party that signed a coalition agreement that obliged the signatories to abide by the Oslo covenant of death.

You would not vote for any party that joined a government whose prime minister pursued the immoral policy of self-restraint toward Arab terrorism, a policy that resulted in the murder of 1,000 Jews.

You would not vote for any party that remained in a government whose prime minister nullified the 2003 election by adopting the opposition party’s policy of “unilateral disengagement,” a policy rejected by the vast majority of the electorate.

And you would not vote for any party that remained in that government while its perfidious prime minister was preparing the IDF and the police to dispossess and deport 10,000 Jews from Gush Katif and northern Samaria.

Again I salute you for voting for Baruch Marzel’s party, which alone called for the abrogation of Oslo, zero-tolerance for Arab terrorism, and the elimination of the Palestinian Authority, which, whether led by Fatah or Hamas, is committed to Israel’s annihilation.

The question remains: By voting for Baruch Marzel’s party, did you deprive NU-NRP of an additional mandate?

Possibly, but it’s hard to say, because no one really knows how the 25,935 people who wisely voted for Hazit would have voted had they been deprived of the opportunity to vote for the only party opposed to Israel’s corrupt Establishment of which NU-NRP is a part.

Although some voters, in the absence of Hazit, might have reluctantly voted for NU-NRP, others might have reluctantly voted for Likud, or perhaps another party. Many might have simply stayed home out of disgust. Baruch Marzel wanted to give such people an alternative!

But let us suppose Marzel did deprive NU-NRP of an additional mandate. So what! This may toughen up the flabby leaders of that compromised coalition. They know that Hazit is a force, that even though it lacked money, was blacked out by the media, and was undermined by the propaganda about not voting for a small party, nevertheless, Marzel won the equivalent of one mandate.

But wait! How many mandates did the NU-NRP deprive Hazit by that self-serving propaganda?

In any event, NU-NRP leaders will now have to watch themselves on basic issues, because Marzel’s party will expose their failings, their compromising of Jewish principles in the name of a shallow and shoddy pragmatism. This alone justifies Marzel for competing in the 2006 elections.

To all who are committed to Israel’s Jewish and territorial integrity, you are indebted to Baruch Marzel!

Joe Settler said...

If you actually made it this far past the monologues and diatribes then check out this link:

http://rotter.net/forum/scoops1/7097.shtml

At least one good thing came out of voting Marzel.

Nothing against her personally, but one less Mafdalnik in the Knesset to stab us in the back.

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