Eretz Yisrael Time

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Thursday, March 30, 2006
As a number of bloggers and pundits have already pointed out, there is a good possibility that we can still foil Kadima.

A Labor/Perertz led coalition with most of the smaller parties can easily block Kadima’s entrance to the government. Not only that, but there is less of a problem of portfolio greed as most of the parties have just a single issue or two that is really important to them and they want the same results anyway.

One viable Coalition configuration could easily be:

Avoda 20
...(Prime Minister, Foreign, Finance, Industry-Trade, Labor, Education)
Shas 13

...(Interior, Justice, Construction&Housing)
Lieberman 12
...(Defense, Security, Transportation)
Likud 11
...(Agriculture, Communications)
Gimlaim 7
...(Health)
UTJ 6
...(Deputy Minister - they don't like taking full responsibility)
Meretz 4
...(Environment)

Total 73 seats.

Everyone gets what is important to them – either a good seat, or at least the knowledge that this will forever destroy Kadima.

The Likud might prefer only the Justice ministry to start going after the Kadima people, and Liebrrman may want it also. Meretz would obviously want Education, but the other coalition partners would never agree, so it would stay with Labor.

If only Amir Peretz has the guts to try this.

4 comments:

Anonymous said...

Why dont you add the Arab parties as well. They have the same chance as joining your coalition. How will Avoda pull out of Yesha with Lieberman and the Likud? Do you really think Avoda will forget about Yesha, while they are drinking their new dream powers? Nice idea. Will work for a month, even a year, but.....

Son of Deer

Joe Settler said...

Simply because the arab parties would never be asked, and even if asked it is unlikely they would join. Nor do they have any unifying motives to join such as destroying Kadima and gaining seats.

Ultimately, the differences in all their positions regarding Yesha are really minor. And certainly Avoda and Leiberman have shown significant flexibility as they seem to be willing to go along with Kadima's single platform issue.

Thus, I don't think that Avoda, Lieberman, and Likud would have a serious problem reaching a compromise vision for the territories that includes some sort of consolidation (annexation) of settlements blocs and the Jordan Valley, while eventually drying up the more "remote" settlements. Lieberman would be given a free hand to try to promote his idea of "citizenship disengagement" in exchange.

Lieberman wants to be a large relevant party, and show he isn't a one-issue party.

Kadima is a party without any values or ethics and that scares me more than a party whose values I disagree with but know.

Avodah's first priority is social agenda. They'll get to the Yesha question, but not immediately. That gives us time to recoup and reposition.

Elliott Cahan said...

I think that you provide a great analysis. According to your numbers they don't even need Meretz. I think that Peretz wants the power and would be intrigued by the idea of forming a coalition without Kadima, especially where they could keep Finance. Labor didn't even really emphasize security issues. This could be a coup.

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