Tuesday, February 17, 2009
2/17/2009 12:30:00 PM | 
Posted by
JoeSettler
Shas must join a Likud formed coalition for one reason: "Aryeh Deri".
In a few months time, Aryeh Deri will be bursting back onto the Shas scene and trying to wrest control away from Eli Yishai.
Aryeh Deri is a leftist. Eli Yishai is not.
If Shas is sitting with Kadima when Deri steps back into the picture you can bet that any chance of Shas sitting with the Likud is over, and Yishai will find himself kicked out of the picture. Deri will go to Rav Ovadia Yosef telling him that he has a better connection to his friends at Kadima than Yishai does.
But, if Shas is with the Likud, after Deri's latest anti-Bibi outburst (no matter how true), he won't be able to put forward that argument and Yishai's position is more secure. And they aren't likely to leave the coalition once in.
As for can they sit with Lieberman? They will sit with him either way (and they have).
But I still feel sorry for all those dupes that voted for Lieberman thinking he was a right-winger, and that by voting Lieberman they would definitely be part of a right-wing government.
Unfortunately the rest of the country has to pay for them being fooled.
In a few months time, Aryeh Deri will be bursting back onto the Shas scene and trying to wrest control away from Eli Yishai.
Aryeh Deri is a leftist. Eli Yishai is not.
If Shas is sitting with Kadima when Deri steps back into the picture you can bet that any chance of Shas sitting with the Likud is over, and Yishai will find himself kicked out of the picture. Deri will go to Rav Ovadia Yosef telling him that he has a better connection to his friends at Kadima than Yishai does.
But, if Shas is with the Likud, after Deri's latest anti-Bibi outburst (no matter how true), he won't be able to put forward that argument and Yishai's position is more secure. And they aren't likely to leave the coalition once in.
As for can they sit with Lieberman? They will sit with him either way (and they have).
But I still feel sorry for all those dupes that voted for Lieberman thinking he was a right-winger, and that by voting Lieberman they would definitely be part of a right-wing government.
Unfortunately the rest of the country has to pay for them being fooled.
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2 comments:
FROM CAROL HERMAN
Anyone taking bets that there will be new elections in a few months time?
How? Neither Livni, nor Bibi, actually form a working government.
And, then? Well, you get those dis-satisifed players, who want another round. Like Ehud Barak. And, Gal-On. And, Foad Ben-Eliezer. Those who had their ministers' portfolios, and seats, ripped out from under them.
You mean you're betting Livni can form a government? How well did she do last November? She had, then, about 70 MKS. And, all she faced were holdups. So she said, "I'll see you boys at Elections."
Meanwhile, IF a government can't be formed, exactly easily, now; how about Olmert staying on as "care-taker?" Until next November. When he was due to go to new elections, anyway?
Too bad most people don't understand the difference between retail and wholesale. Though most of us PAY retail! That's why politicians put up fancy store front windows.
And, into this run the "sub-titles" you get from the mainstream media. Nothing more than pages of ads. Nobody forces you to buy!
In any event, a STABLE government is one that can keep its coalition members safely in their seats.
And, one curious picture showed up of a recent Kadima meeting. There was Dahlia Itzik, in "seat #2" ... right of Livni. And, then? Mofaz got to sit in "seat #3."
I learned awhile back, before Arik Sharon's stroke; that he HATED Itzik! But Shimon Peres considers Itzik his "honey." And, he demanded, as part of the price of his moving into Kadima, that Itsik get a seat, too. (Back then? Labor started to die. But Shimon Peres' honey, now sits in Seat #2. That's the "wholesale." What price will be paid at retail? I have no idea. (Shimon Peres, is, if nothing else, a political survivor. And, if I had to guess? A better friend of Olmert's. Where Olmert stays on as "care-taker" as long as a government doesn't form "all that fast.")
Anyway, I'm betting that Labor and Meretz merge. Why not? They're both left parties. They've both suffered major shrinkage. And, IF you add "3" to Ehud Barak's 13 ... There ya go. 16! One more (as Livni's song goes) than his nearest competitor: Avigdor Lieberman.
Diplomats lie to you every single day. And, so, too, do politicians.
Meanwhile, "gib a-kick" ... The store window is avertising "specials."
Me? I think the store will get to keep its merchandise; until something, or other, gets re-packaged.
Livni? She's sitting on the "middle" card. You can call it "the center." Or more likely the middle that sits between your cheeks, "down there."
One reason Bibi's lead shrank so much; is that he never had what the press was telling you the polls showed he had! Votes just don't disappear! It's only on election day that you can learn anything.
You don't even know if Bibi will accept Livni as prime minister, just so his Kadima can get back into government.
On the other hand? If Livni remains stubborn, what about all those nice portfolios offered by Bibi, to cut a deal?
Buy now. Pay later.
How come Bibi never went with the parties on the right? Totaling them up you get to 65 Knesset seats. All he had to do was meet with them, and declare he had a government. Just with the assurances that "everyone would stick together." Obviously, this is NOT Bibi's plan!
As a politician running, he ran to the center! But Likud wasn't a center party. And, then when Arik Sharon got very angry, he dismissed the whole party to start Kadima. (Which has left, a few right. And, a middle.) But when you total up "real" left and center numbers, you only fill 55 Knesset seats.
I'm guessing there's this quibbling going on, now, because Livni thinks she has some sort of "connection" on how Peres will decide? Within a few days you'll know this truth.
Now, I've read that Feiglin claims Bibi hurt himself, when he pushed Feiglin down to 36th place. (Even though all the parties play with positions. That's how Gal-On just got tossed. That's how Foad Ben-Eliezer didn't make the Labor's cut.) But Bibi, who picked Likud up from a dozen chairs to 27, is being made (by the media), to look like a failure.
A long time ago, I gave up at ever thinking any politician tells the truth, when speaking in public. Maybe, that's why it remains so interesting to watch?
And? If Livni is chosen to form the next government, how many religious parties will race to see if they can grab a portfolio?
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