Things are still too close to call, but there are some interesting things to consider.

Bibi shot himself in the foot twice. First by obsessing over Feiglin, and then by saying he would prefer a National Unity government. He lost all those Right Wing votes to Yisrael Beiteinu as a result. Likud did not lose any seats to or because of Ichud Leumi or Bayit Yehudi.

Lieberman is holding out on declaring he will support Bibi, but I highly doubt that Uzi Landau would consider joining Kadima no matter how much he dislikes Bibi.

If Lieberman doesn’t want a custom tailored ministerial position, then most likely Lieberman will want to be Minister of Interior Security (that way he can give his loyalty tests and block the police investigations as the head of Israel’s version of the KGB).

Of course he may not be able to have that position (or any position) with all those criminal investigations over his head.

Bibi's people are probably sitting down and trying to figure out Ministerial constellations. This is probably one chart they came up with:

Deputy Prime Minister: Lieberman/Yisrael Beiteinu
Defense: Boogie Ya'alon/Likud
Finance: Bennie Begin/Likud
Foreign: Silvan Shalom/Likud
Building and Construction: Katzaleh/Ichud Leumi
Education: Hershowitz/Bayit Yehudi or Shas
Interior Minister: Eli Yisha/Shas
Absorption Minister: Danny Ayalon/Yisrael Beiteinu
Justice Minister: Dan Meridor/Likud
Religious Affairs: Shas
Social Affairs: UTJ
Communications: Shas
Transportation (or Interior Security): Uzi Landau/Yisrael Beiteinu
Interior Security or Special Minsiter for SuperStrategic Issues which sounds important: Lieberman/Yisrael Beiteinu
...

Your thoughts?