Saturday, February 14, 2009
2/14/2009 07:56:00 PM | 
Posted by
JoeSettler
I'll admit, we are all worried as to what Lieberman will decide. After all, he isn't a real right winger (in the Jewish sense), and he certainly has no problems sitting in a Left wing government. His current behavior goes far beyond negotiating and shows that he plans to be a thorn in whatever government he chooses to join (he reminds me of the story about the body parts that were arguing as to who is the most important part of the body, if you know the joke, you know what I mean).
But here is the irony.
At this point all the religious parties have realized that his secular agenda is an anathema to them (hopefully this includes Shas and Bayit Yehudi). They will risk sitting with him in the Likud because they know they are most likely able to block him. But in a Kadima government that would be all but impossible.
This means, if Lieberman chooses Kadima, even with Meretz and Avoda by their side, the only way they have more than 59 seats is if one of the Arab parties throws them their support!
Can you imagine that? Lieberman helps form a Left wing government through Arab support!
Now that's ironic (and I would not put it past Lieberman to try that, as all he wants is power to set up his McCarthy lists).
So, in most likelyhood, he will choose the Likud first, and Bibi doesn't need to give him everything under the sun.
In a year or two, Lieberman may decide to pull out for other political adventures, but that leaves Bibi with a year or two to round up some Kadima rejects and bring them over to bolster his party (or even Labor!).
In any event, Bibi will have to find a way to defuse Lieberman's exagerated strength.
But still, it is ironic that if Lieberman chooses Left, he will most likely require the Arab support to do so.
But here is the irony.
At this point all the religious parties have realized that his secular agenda is an anathema to them (hopefully this includes Shas and Bayit Yehudi). They will risk sitting with him in the Likud because they know they are most likely able to block him. But in a Kadima government that would be all but impossible.
This means, if Lieberman chooses Kadima, even with Meretz and Avoda by their side, the only way they have more than 59 seats is if one of the Arab parties throws them their support!
Can you imagine that? Lieberman helps form a Left wing government through Arab support!
Now that's ironic (and I would not put it past Lieberman to try that, as all he wants is power to set up his McCarthy lists).
So, in most likelyhood, he will choose the Likud first, and Bibi doesn't need to give him everything under the sun.
In a year or two, Lieberman may decide to pull out for other political adventures, but that leaves Bibi with a year or two to round up some Kadima rejects and bring them over to bolster his party (or even Labor!).
In any event, Bibi will have to find a way to defuse Lieberman's exagerated strength.
But still, it is ironic that if Lieberman chooses Left, he will most likely require the Arab support to do so.
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6 comments:
FROM CAROL HERMAN
Something tells me "there's a game, afoot." In other words? Anyone who gets on stage and says their lines fast, LOSES. The next actor up gets to own the scene. And, "the slower the better."
Avigdor Lieberman pulled down Arik Sharon's first government. The man deal "in thin air."
As to what Livni is doing? Since supposedly, Bibi offered her 10 portfolios; including 2 of the top 4. Is that she plays a good game of "dithering." I kid you not. The lady does, in fact, dither rather well.
And, the real "man behind the curtain" is Shimon Peres, who has announced he "will do nothing" until February 18th.
Sitting in the opposition is a very dull place to go; when you can, in fact, "grab a portfolio."
Can Amier Pertez actually come back to "guide" Labor into an even poorer standing? Dunno.
Ehud Barak, I'm willing to bet, has some sort of lock on the Defense Portfolio. OR? He owns the story on how he worked behind Livni's back, to curtail her being able to form a government BEFORE she decided "okay, boys. I'll see you at the ballot box." She held 70 ministers in the palms of her hand. But she was being held up. And, there was no deal.
Now? Well, look at Labor. Foad Ben Eliezer lots his seat in the Knesset. Just didn't make the cut.
A smiliar thing happened at Meretz, where Gal-On was forced into 4th place. And, her seat's gone. Meretz just got three.
Given that there are only 45 seats on the "left" ... Livni has to decide (where she might have already decided), to throw in with Bibi. But make it appear that "he has to work for it."
With Livni in, then Avigdor Lieberman's cards get to be of poorer quality.
And? To make a government, Bibi "just has to pick one." Switching Kadima for Yisrael Beitenu? How should I know? I don't hold any of these cards.
But I just picked up "THE MUCH TOO PROMISED LAND" by Aaron David Miller. And, as I started it as soon as it arrived from Amazon, I read about how Shamir played for time. Using diplomacy "as if" there was cooperation. While there was a game of "chicken" ... Yes, orchestrated by James Baker, of seeing if Shamir or Arafat would get blamed for being non-cooperative.
I'm guessing, no one wants the Americans to run amok. While Barack Obama looks ready to work for a Nobel Peace Prize; even if everything he does screws up the works. (With the GOP out there as outlandish "fundamentalists" their chances of getting back into government slots gets "skimpy.") And, in a game called "keeps" it's to everybody's advantage to play to the press. As if everyone's just a wide-eyed virgin. Even Helen Thomas.
I think we can call this game "Charades."
And, Bibi knew before the results were in that "seats" slipped away from him. Livni, on the other hand pulled enough enough; that you can compare what she got to Olmert's take in 2006.
The "joker in the deck" is still Ehud Barak. And, it's not a "done deal" until Bibi sets out the path he wants to follow.
Oh? If Livni dithers and is not willing to play second fiddle to Bibi's prime-ministership? Then Shaul Mofaz will go after her, but good.
Ditto, for Labor.
The circus, ahead, can be played out on the sidelines. Which creates a good parry for the right.
But nobody knows until February 18th; when the gonif Shimon Peres tells you "which horse won." And? If coming in first can still mean you came in second? No matter what he does; there's gonna be a whole lot of anger out there. Lieberman? Perhaps he's the least of it?
FROM CAROL HERMAN
I just can't help it; IF Bibi somehow chooses to go "left" ... he sits in a very unstable seat!
And, how many times have parties come and gone? Lapid saw his 15-seater disappear. Gil's Efie Eitem now holds on, all alone. Because, he had an internal mess blowing up on him. With people he chose to put on his ticket! (And, then? ALong came the russian with money.)
Lieberman? The russian without money. And, with problems, perhaps worse than Olmert's "free flights."
Anyway, the very reason you just had a new election has to do with Morris Talansky, a shill for the religious right; showing Bibi "he had a chance to win."
And, then? Votes evaporated.
Did it take "that" story up in its smog?
"Joe McCarthy," the Junior Senator from Wisconsin, used the senate committee he chaired to terrify (believe this or not), American communists. So many stories go untold. But if you looked at hollywood now, you'd still see "weird" on parade.
While Ronald Reagan grew in stature by first coming into the Screen Actors Guild. At the same time Joe McCarthy was being wrapped in a straight jacket; and carted off to Walter Reed Army Hospital. Where he died of a heart attack. While wrapped in a straight jacket. And, a patient on the psychiatric floor. Cardiologists usually aren't found there.
As to Likud, there are a lot of members, today, who remember Avigdor Lieberman's games back in what was it, when he pulled down Arik Sharon's first government? After that? Avigdor Lieberman wasn't seated inside anything to do with Likud. Or its derivative; Kadima.
Kadima still isn't stable.
Livni dithers.
But Shaul Mofaz plots to see her destroyed. And, maybe? He's better at these internal knife fights than Amir Peretz will be going up against Ehud Barak.
How much is solved "behind the screen." While the media just plays with itself?
How about a bet? In the "next" election; whenever it comes about, Avigdor Lieberman can't get 15 seats? Why would russian voters give him the time of day if he impedes what they want? (Welfare. And, civil marriages.) Of course, "back in russia" things are worse.
In a made-up contest between putin & Joe McCarthy, McCarthy loses. Putin, alas, is the "pro." And, in Israel? That's what the russians want. Go figa.
Most Likely Scenario:
Likud-Kadima-Labor.
This is what Obama wants.
This is what Solana wants.
This is what Peres wants.
This is what Israel's MSM wants.
Think for a moment...who really calls the shots in Israel.
I hope that a Likud-Labour-Kadima is not what we get... this would be disastrous to Judea & Samaria.
But it would also kill Likud's nationalist support for good this time. The right-wing camp came out in swarm for Bibi one last time... if he screws it up this time around, he won't get another chance.
I hope to G-d he doesn't pull an Arik Sharon move on us. Twice in once decade is enough.
I reckon Bibi will do a Begin and after winning big support from the right, he will become the big peace man and welcome Assad into Israel to address the Knesset.
FROM CAROL HERMAN
I still say it's in Shimon Peres' hands. (I'm not so sure Livni's approach; using the left-wing press, brings her much "return.")
IF Livni had to form a government? Boy, would that be a disaster! How soon before she topples?
On the other hand, by not challenging her, Bibi ADVANCES. It's one of the cruelest things to watch; those of us brought up on headlines; that the press can kill you faster than any mistakes you make "while dancing."
Bibi has said very little. However, I've got a math lesson to teach Livni. Here goes: Mofaz, today, is in conversations with Shas' leader. So? You don't think Livni thinks she's dancing with 28 seats, and Mofaz shoots off into Likud? I'm not sure of the rules. But I'd bet that once you've won your seat, you can "choose" ... too.
And, if Mofaz shifts? There goes Livni's "lead." Which went south, anyway, because who'd want to count on 11 arab seats to make you prime minister? It just doesn't compute.
Why is Bibi so quiet? Because it's in Peres' hands, and he's not looking to spill oil on a conflagration the press would love to see shooting up like fireworks.
Meanwhile, if pictures tell words, Bibi's got his color back. And, Livni looks downright depressed, and haggard.
Yes, Bibi can have a "unity" government; but there ya go. Ehud Barak JOINS. And, then? Politics. It's a show. And, it shows best when force is used. So that even if this was an arm-wrestling match; Livni can't force Bibi's arm to the table.
If I were her? I'd have recommended that she added some "zig" to her "zag." Because her best hope was giving into Bibi. And, collecting "par" in terms of portfolios.
Where's the center? It's not on the left! It's gone! And, if it's Bibi forming the government, you bet he has the power to keep his right side in line. (Better than Mofaz against Livni, if I was betting horses.) (Yeah. I'm sure it looks different in America than it does in Israel.)
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