Wednesday, August 22, 2007
8/22/2007 01:43:00 PM | 
Posted by
JoeSettler
A few months ago I said Jameel was wrong when he said that we would be at war in the near future. I proved to be right.
But now, I think war is around the corner. Perhaps in as close as a month or two.
If you read a variety of papers, they all have their own little tidbits here or there describing what Syria is doing and responses by the Israeli government. Nothing in one big article (except here), and certainly this is all something being downplayed in Israel.
Russia is giving (has given?) Syria a serious weapons boost with the SA-18 anti-aircraft system.
Not enough to fight a war with, unless you are looking for a local war, say on the Golan Heights.
In that case, the Scuds and Katyushas that Syria (and Hizbollah) have (and they have enough) are enough to seriously cause major damage and disruptions (as Israel has no defense against them) while they send massive troops (and they have enough to throw away there too) to physically take over the Golan, while their very advanced anti-aircraft and anti-tank systems (as well as their very low-tech ones too) keep Israeli forces at bay.
Think about this for a second.
1) Israel has no effective defense against the myriad of long-range Scud-D (and Chinese C-802) missiles that Syria can rain down on us. (Our navy has a defense against the C-802 but only if they remember to turn the system on).
2) Israel may have no effective way to retaliate against Syria by air if Syria get their SA-18s in play.
3) Syria could probably hold off our troops with massive targeted artillery shelling.
4) Syria has already stepped up their troops near the Golan, and they have been practicing.
5) Syria wants the Golan.
6) Syria sees our still incompetent leadership and doesn’t expect much more from them this year (no one does actually).
Is this not an invitation to war?
I am worried that our politicians may not make the right choices, may avoid concepts like “total victory” and “preemptive strike”.
I am worried we may lose the Golan. After all, there is only one real issue here: Syria just needs to occupy the Golan long enough for them to get a cease-fire in play, and then we’ve lost it.
But now, I think war is around the corner. Perhaps in as close as a month or two.
If you read a variety of papers, they all have their own little tidbits here or there describing what Syria is doing and responses by the Israeli government. Nothing in one big article (except here), and certainly this is all something being downplayed in Israel.
Russia is giving (has given?) Syria a serious weapons boost with the SA-18 anti-aircraft system.
Not enough to fight a war with, unless you are looking for a local war, say on the Golan Heights.
In that case, the Scuds and Katyushas that Syria (and Hizbollah) have (and they have enough) are enough to seriously cause major damage and disruptions (as Israel has no defense against them) while they send massive troops (and they have enough to throw away there too) to physically take over the Golan, while their very advanced anti-aircraft and anti-tank systems (as well as their very low-tech ones too) keep Israeli forces at bay.
Think about this for a second.
1) Israel has no effective defense against the myriad of long-range Scud-D (and Chinese C-802) missiles that Syria can rain down on us. (Our navy has a defense against the C-802 but only if they remember to turn the system on).
2) Israel may have no effective way to retaliate against Syria by air if Syria get their SA-18s in play.
3) Syria could probably hold off our troops with massive targeted artillery shelling.
4) Syria has already stepped up their troops near the Golan, and they have been practicing.
5) Syria wants the Golan.
6) Syria sees our still incompetent leadership and doesn’t expect much more from them this year (no one does actually).
Is this not an invitation to war?
I am worried that our politicians may not make the right choices, may avoid concepts like “total victory” and “preemptive strike”.
I am worried we may lose the Golan. After all, there is only one real issue here: Syria just needs to occupy the Golan long enough for them to get a cease-fire in play, and then we’ve lost it.
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4 comments:
the only real problem we have is with our leadership. If they would not be too pansy assed to make courageous decisions, we would be fine.
I say bring it on. Nobody, incl;uding me, wants war. But if they think we are sitting ducks and will roll over easy, they have another think coming. Even with idiots like Olmert at the helm.
Joe, could you rework your site? The left-margin blurbs [Recent Posts, et al] overlap and obstruct some of the text of your lead post.
Thanks!
-- MAOZ
MAOZ,
Sure. What browser and size screen are your working with so I can test it out.
What do you think of my new Hover Ad. Totally Cool, right?
i dont agree with you. syria has been making these noises, on and off, for decades. nothing new here. and why would they start now? they can just do the same as last summer without getting their hands too dirty and losing troops.
i vote for no war.
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