Eretz Yisrael Time

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Saturday, May 19, 2007
Jameel claims that the drums of war are beginning to beat.

I'm going to go out on a limb here, when I say I am very skeptical that we will reach that point in the immediate future.

Yeah, Sderot is being bombarded, and sure we even sent in a few tanks and did an airstrike or two, but a full out (or even partial) war?

My gut, right at this moment, just keeps saying that it won't happen.

Sure, it would be an easy way for both Olmert and Peretz to rehabilitate their images, but I think they were wishing/hoping for at least a few more months till they had to even begin to think of war, and right now they are frozen in the headlights.

They face another problem, and they know it.

What would be the goal of the war, and how would they achieve it?

The first is obvious, fewer rocket strikes per day - no more grandiose claims by Olmert that he will stop them completely - which relates to the second part of the question.

The only way to achieve absolute quiet is to liberate Gaza again.

And there in lies the crux of the problem.

Targeted strikes have only limited effect, and just like last year they should be used to soften up the targets to let the ground troops go in.

But, Olmert won't let the ground troops in, because the only way to maintain the quiet is to stay inside - something he doesn't want.

So Olmert is stuck, he has only one hope, and that is that someone in the PA will gain more control and lower the rocket rates.

In the meantime he will continue with targeted attacks of limited value, to create an illusion that he is doing something (just like they do with the wall), and the attacks will escalate.

The real questions are, what do the Arabs need to hit, and how many need to die before Olmert finds himself forced to act in a serious manner? And how far will he then be willing to go once he commits.

But like I said, short of a major (and I mean major - increased volleys on Sderot don't count) disaster, I just don't see this escalating to the level where Israel is prepared to wipe out the terrorist infrastructure once and for all.


There is an alternative which is just as scary.

Olmert will go for a short war, with the goal of forcing a UN or multinational peacekeeping force into Gaza - just like Lebanon.

It's an easy solution, because then the weapons and infrastructure buildup that will go on under UN observation will delay the inevitable - but delay it enough so that it will at least be someone else's problem.


As a final thought, can anyone explain to me the Left's infatuation with Barak? You would think after last summer, everyone would realize how dangerous this man is to Israel's security - yet here he is - a front runner.

Short memories is just too easy an answer.

6 comments:

DAAT Y said...

bARAK WILL GIVE EVERYTHING BACK-AS WE KNOW HE HAS ALREADY OFFERED-AND MAYBE MORE.

Rafi G said...

ynet

JoeSettler said...

JP is reporting that the cabinet is actually discussing providing support to Fatah!

JoeSettler said...

Haaretz is reporting the cabinet is mulling asking for international forces to come in.

tnspr569 said...

As Batya says, "People love to lie to themselves."

G-d only knows what will come next.

Anonymous said...

Labor primaries are when? May 28th? Just around the corner. Maybe Peretz will want to be seen doing something in time to make an impression before the primaries. (Doing something more than observing a night-operations exercise in broad daylight, that is! )

-- MAOZ

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