Thursday, April 20, 2006
4/20/2006 04:40:00 PM | 
Posted by
JoeSettler
I just came across a very scary book I bought back in 1990. Published by the IASPS (Institute for Advanced Strategic and Political Studies, Jerusalem) it contains an analysis and additional essays by various military and political analysts (including I was amused to see, one Daniel Pipes). The name of the book is “Can Israeli Survive a Palestinian State”, edited by Michael Widlanski.
The premise of the book is obvious from its title, what is scary is its prescience.
It discusses the goals and methods of a potential Palestinian state, and the Israeli/regional repercussions that will (not may) result.
Occasionally limited by the RealPolitic of the day, such as the influence of the Soviet Union, the book is a far too accurate forecast describing where we are today.
I was particularly taken by the insights that religious fanaticism (fundamentalism) will rise, Hamas will be the central player in any future Palestinian state, Iran will provide influence and support on many levels, rockets will fall on the Ashdod ports and power plant, general terror attacks will rise as the Palestinian state would either directly utilize terror or simply permit it from their territory (as well as allow 3rd party terror groups in for their own purposes), and most interesting, Israel will also be severely restricted in the level of retaliation and reprisals that it will be permitted to utilize against this Palestinian state for a number of reasons.
It is unfortunate that this rather descriptive book is also a rather accurate book.
Written 16 years ago it correctly describes the inevitable escalation of events once the PLO is allowed into the Land of Israel. We have only reached halfway through the timeline of inevitable results that this book predicts, and all indications show that we are rushing down this wrong way street at full gas with no intent to stop.
I spoke with an acquaintance from the US recently and he mentioned that no matter how accurate the predictions of the Right have been over the years they are simply ignored for the policies of the Left.
That doesn’t leave much room for hope, does it?
The premise of the book is obvious from its title, what is scary is its prescience.
It discusses the goals and methods of a potential Palestinian state, and the Israeli/regional repercussions that will (not may) result.
Occasionally limited by the RealPolitic of the day, such as the influence of the Soviet Union, the book is a far too accurate forecast describing where we are today.
I was particularly taken by the insights that religious fanaticism (fundamentalism) will rise, Hamas will be the central player in any future Palestinian state, Iran will provide influence and support on many levels, rockets will fall on the Ashdod ports and power plant, general terror attacks will rise as the Palestinian state would either directly utilize terror or simply permit it from their territory (as well as allow 3rd party terror groups in for their own purposes), and most interesting, Israel will also be severely restricted in the level of retaliation and reprisals that it will be permitted to utilize against this Palestinian state for a number of reasons.
It is unfortunate that this rather descriptive book is also a rather accurate book.
Written 16 years ago it correctly describes the inevitable escalation of events once the PLO is allowed into the Land of Israel. We have only reached halfway through the timeline of inevitable results that this book predicts, and all indications show that we are rushing down this wrong way street at full gas with no intent to stop.
I spoke with an acquaintance from the US recently and he mentioned that no matter how accurate the predictions of the Right have been over the years they are simply ignored for the policies of the Left.
That doesn’t leave much room for hope, does it?
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