The one advantage Israel has right now is how transparent Obama has turned out to be. At least knowing what he is really after is a step towards being able to fight back.

For instance, what could be the possible motivation for a 3 month retroactive freeze that ends in just over a month, and has no alleged continuation, and certainly won't bring the Pals back to the table?

Since there is really only 1 item on the table that is going to be discussed, and there is only 1 Obama threat that stands out from all the others, clearly they are probably linked.

The one item up for discussion right now is that Obama wants to pin down and pressure Bibi to deliver the maximalist borders that he will give away. Obama wants maps, Obama wants lines, and Obama wants Jerusalem (and the Jordan Valley).

Once Obama has that, no further negotiations are needed.

He will then begin working in the UN on behalf of the Palestinians to declare a state based on those borders in exactly 1 year 1 month and 1 week. The date his self-imposed restriction on vetoing a Palestinian state will expire.

(Coincidentally, think of that date as a 2011 X-mas present which is timed with the ending of Al-Hijra/Muharram, the Islamic sacred month when Mohammad went from Mecca to Medina).

(And Chanukah too).

That's it. It's that simple and that straightforward.

Now along the way, and for the same money, he can also cause Bibi a coalition crisis.

--

Related rumors and anonymous sources:

Anonymous sources in Prime Ministers office (sorry, nothing online) have said that Israel was to get the extra 20 F-35s anyway (but it is not clear who is to be paying for them, Israeli officials believes Israel will be), also that Obama demanded that Bibi dump Lieberman for Tzippi.

Where Pollard fits into this (part of the game, or an actual demand by Bibi) is still anyone's guess.

And on a final note, one explanation given regarding why the letter with Obama's threats is taking so long to arrive is that Bibi claims to have received certain promises from Obama on Jerusalem. Getting that in writing about ("East") Jerusalem (as it being shoveled to us) would be a 180 degree change in US policy. Don't hold your breath expecting to see in writing what we were told last week.