It certainly looks like Peres is going over to Kadima and Sharon.

But certainly someone as distinguished and important as Peres should no longer have to demean himself anymore to accommodate something as common and populist as elections. I’m sure that Sharon will be giving Peres an interesting job, though not necessarily a Knesset seat.

Of course this would change the picture a lot. “Crush ‘em” Ramon and Peres together – sounds like the New Labor Party to me (and now Dalia Itzik and Yossi Sarid wants in too).

Obviously Sharon knows that too much Labor might turn off some of his Likud voters, so Peres might just end up with a Kadima/Government “Elder Statesman” position - something with a title, prestige, and the continuing opportunity to hobnob with the rich, famous, and powerful – all at the taxpayer’s expense, though not as an MK (but perhaps as a minister Sharon could fire).

So where does that leave us?

Kadima is the new Labor, and the Old Labor is now… Shas.

That’s right!

The disenfranchised will vote for the new hero of the tired, poor, hungry and Sephardi – Amir Peretz and Labor.

Where does that leave Shas?

Heading towards oblivion I’d say (well OK, heavily damaged actually).

The funny thing is that Shas holds victory in the palm of its hands.

If only Shas (or the man in charge) could swallow its/his pride and bring back Aryeh Deri.

Deri could ensure that nary would a single Sephardi vote ever reach Peretz, and Shas would once again be kingmaker.

Unfortunately, Deri is friends with Ramon and some other Kadima people, so he could just as easily put Kadima in the catbird seat as he could anyone else.

What about the Likud?

What a mess.
But between the Trojan horse (Mofaz), the man with no ideological backbone (Netanyahu), the man with no voter appeal (Landau), the man with no chance (Feiglin), and all the other wannabees (Shalom, Livnat, etc.) and not to mention a 1000 of Sharon’s men in the Likud Central Committee, who knows what will happen.

The only thing probable is that with Peres visibly hanging on to Sharon, a lot of Likud’s potential Kadima voters will vote Likud in the end.

What of Sheretz and Shinui?

Well those that really hate Settlers and Religious will still vote for them, respectfully.

Those that vote economically left will instead vote Avoda, politically left for Sharon, and those that only vote White will vote Sharon since Shinui will be a wasted vote. If Yair joined his dad they'd win the female vote big time.

Sheretz with Barghouti at it's head would win the far Left and Arab vote - whether or not he was still in jail.

And the Right?

Well, a joint Religious and Right bloc would pull in a serious number of seats, particularly if Shas (with Deri) also joined, but a configuration like that will never happen.

Instead a joint NRP & Nation Union party will pull in some seats from the Likud, but that’s it. They've simply got nothing exciting or new going on over there.

And the Religious? (Not the NRP, which doesn't count for much these days.)

Well their constituency has been hurt very badly this past term by Sharon. They may actually come out to vote in larger numbers than usual. That could actually affect the size of the pie slices for each party.

As a side point, the polls currently say that Sharon may get a large number of seats - but voters may soon begin to ask themselves, "If I vote Sharon, what will I actually get after the elections?" - I expect that to be the Likud's message.

We’ll check back in a few weeks when the smoke starts to clear, and see if this analysis has any merit.